It's curious that the OP states, nearly as fact, that the incumbent will be going negative early on. What's the source of this crystal balling?

First, who is the incumbent going to go negative on? The GOP won't have a candidate for nearly a year, so how is the President going to go negative? The premise being pitched by the OP doesn't make sense.

Isn't it the storyline of the GOP candidates that to appease "the base" they need to generate "red meat" style campaigning against the President? There was a candidate that recently tested the water against Romney before the NH debates and wound up on his back exposing his belly . . . what happened to that guy?